December Market Update_600

 

For Custodians, 2019 will be our biggest year yet with prices in South East Queensland following trend and increasing, whilst Sydney and Melbourne moderate. Custodians own more than 5,000 properties in SEQ so every 10% kick in prices increases collective equity by $250m. 

From a finance perspective, you might have missed an important bit of data that came out of this month. First home buyer loans are at their highest since 2010, and owner occupiers had their biggest monthly increase in 24 and 12 months respectively. Investors are also back with their biggest surge since January of this year.

I have brought forward our Kickstart to the 8th of January so you can get a boost straight after you wake up from New Year’s celebrations. You should absolutely be buying in 2019 as this is the big one we’ve been waiting for.

As usual, if you want to change your life; you have to start with your diet so we will be featuring those dedicated to nutrition and training. In fact, a Custodian himself who by his own admission was a ‘fat bastard’ and is now, at age 38, an Australian triathlon champion who has just turned professional.

We also feature another Custodian who is a legend in the music promotion industry. He will be talking about his 18-year journey with Custodian and his career as a music promoter bringing out some of the biggest acts in the world to Australia (e.g. Red Hot Chilli Peppers).

The ‘One Man Bank’ - Mr. Kim Cannon from Firstmac is also joining us. He is taking the banks head on having gone from $100m a month in settled loans to over $300m a month. He will set the scene for us with the banks and the landscape going forward. It will be great for Custodians to meet him as many of us already have loans with Firstmac.

Finally, a real special guest will be joining us. Mr. Kerwin Rae is the number one business growth and motivational coach in Australia today. He gives us his top growth tips for ultimate business and personal success.  He shares with Alex what his key daily habits are that give him the edge to survive, grow and prosper.

Make 2019 your best year yet. Jump on the webinar to Kickstart your year with hyper motivation, inspiration and the toolkit you need for ultimate success.

Of course, we will cover the usual market data and where we finished in 2018, as well as predictions for 2019 and beyond. Then we will pull apart the numbers that have meaning to us, and what is currently on my ‘dashboard’.

What has meaning in this climate?

In order here are my top 5 

1. Population growth and Jobs

- This is big, especially in SEQ where places like the Gold Coast are down to 4% unemployment rate. We read about the Government wanting to have a discussion about the ‘Big Australia’ and population, but we need workers, and even if they reduce migration, they are still bullish on foreign students which will fill the void.

- Part 2 on migration is the droves of Sydney siders leaving and moving north. I will be interested to see how these numbers play out and the effect on Melbourne, which in my estimate could takeover Sydney as Australia’s number 1 city for the population.

2. Banking

- Banks are hurting post royal commission, not just in reputation but on the bottom line. New finance sources are entering the market and I expect after March 2019 the Banks will get aggressive with new offers to win back market share. That’s good for us.

3. Valuations

- You must revisit your valuations every 6 months, especially now the SEQ market is the hottest in the country. Higher valuations improve your cash flow as they give you more flexibility to negotiate terms with lenders.

4. Infrastructure 

- We are experiencing a once in a lifetime infrastructure boom. Infrastructure changes zoning and density. All levels of government are spending record amounts, and that’s a game changer for us.

5. Tax

- I better say something about negative gearing as the polls favor Labor and they are committed to change. Canceling negative gearing on second-hand properties doesn’t affect us or our houses but it absolutely smashes apartments and apartment resales. 50% of apartments built are sold to investors so the resales of apartments (particularly the prototype 1brm 50m2 or 2brm 80m2 unit) will take a battering. If you own one sell it if Labor gets in as it will be difficult to sell and even harder to refinance.